[ad_1]
After 100 games and more than a month of exciting football, The FIFA World Cup 2026 reached the decisive stage with only four teams left standing. It’s a historic lineup in the semifinals in more ways than one. For the first time since FIFA introduced its world rankings in 1992, the top four ranked teams in the world – France, Argentina, Spain and England – have advanced to the last four of the World Cup. It is also the first time since the 1990 edition that all four semi-finalists are former world champions, underscoring the quality and pedigree of the teams still in contention.There has been much debate over the past month about who will emerge victorious at the first-ever 48-team FIFA World Cup, a tournament expanded to a record 104 matches and 32 knockouts. There have been surprise packages, giant-killings and emotional exits along the way, but as the tournament enters its final week, the contenders are exactly who they should be according to FIFA’s rankings.After six rounds of football – three group stage matches, followed by round of 16, round of 16 and quarter finals – the world’s top four ranked teams are just two wins away from lifting the most coveted trophy in world football.The semifinal schedule promises two exciting contests. Spain face France in Arlington, Texas on July 15, while defending champions Argentina play England in Atlanta on July 16. The losing teams will compete in a third-place playoff in Miami on July 19, before the champion is crowned in the finals at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 20.
Who are the favorites? The betting markets offer a clue
With four football heavyweights remaining, one of the biggest questions among fans is simply: Who is most likely to lift the trophy?While predictions remain subjective, betting markets often provide a useful snapshot of public sentiment. The two largest prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, attracted huge interest during the tournament, with a combined betting volume of more than $5.3 billion across various FIFA World Cup markets. About $4.2 billion was wagered on Polymarket and $1.1 billion on Kalsha with predictions ranging from the tournament winner and Golden Boot to Ballon d’Or, Best Young Player, Golden Glove and Fair Play awards.Separate predictions have also been created for each semi-final, giving an insight into how fans expect the final four markets to play out.According to Kalshi, France enter the semi-final against Spain as favourites, with a 59% chance of reaching the final compared to Spain’s 41%. More than $9 million has reportedly been invested in that particular outcome.The second semi-final is considered much closer. England have a narrow lead over defending champions Argentina, with the Three Lions having a 54% chance of progressing compared to Argentina’s 46%. About 2.8 million dollars were invested in that market alone.Polymarket reflects a similar trend. The platform also favors the France vs. England final, with significantly more money traded on the France-Spain semi-final ($7.6 million) than the Argentina vs. England match ($1 million).
France is emerging as the clear favorite for the title
When it comes to an outright winner, the betting markets are overwhelmingly in favor of France.Across the two prediction platforms, roughly 39% of bets are backing Didier Deschamps’ side to win the World Cup, making Les Bleus clear favorites going into the final week.The fight behind them is much tougher. England is the second favourite, attracting around 22% of predictions, just slightly ahead of Spain, which accounts for around 21%.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is the market’s view of Argentina. Despite being the defending champions and boasting Lionel Messi, they are currently the least fancied of the four remaining teams, with only around 18% of predictions backing them to successfully defend their title.A total of $4 billion was invested in the tournament winner category on Polymarket, while almost $1.2 billion was invested on Kalshi.Polymarket’s predicted final combinations also reflect France’s status as favourites. A France v England final is considered the most likely outcome, with an estimated probability of 35%. A repeat of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is seen as the second most likely scenario at 28%, followed by Spain v England (21%) and Spain v Argentina (20%).
The Golden Boot race remains finely balanced
The race for the Golden Boot has become one of the most fascinating subplots of the tournament.Going into the semi-finals, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi are tied at the top of the scoring charts with eight goals each, while Harry Kane remains in contention with six.The betting markets heavily favor Mbappe to finish as the tournament’s top scorer. More than $55 million has reportedly been invested in the Golden Boot on Polymarket, with another $16 million on Kalshi.Mbappe has 56% predictions on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi, while Messi lags behind with 34% and 31% respectively. Kane is a distant third, receiving only 5% of predictions on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.With all the leading contenders still alive in the tournament, the race for the Golden Boot is expected to go all the way to the final.
The Golden Ball, Young Player and Golden Glove races are heating upThe race for the Golden Ball, which is awarded to the best player of the tournament, attracted great attention.Approximately $7 million was invested in Polymarket and $3.3 million in Kalsha in this category. Mbappe (56% on Playmarket & 61% on Kalshi) again leads the betting, while Messi (34% & 31%) remains his closest challenger. England star Jude Bellingham (18% on both) is also firmly in contention after another outstanding campaign.For the award for the best young player, Spanish sensation Lamine Yamal has emerged as the clear favourite. The teenager enjoys 42% support on Polymarket and 46% on Kalshi, ahead of France’s Desire Doue, while Spanish defender Pau Cubarsi completes the leading trio.The Golden Glove race is just as competitive. France goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the betting with around 37-38% support on both platforms, narrowly ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon.Even the Fair Play award has generated significant interest among bookmakers. Norway, despite their elimination, are still heavy favorites for the honour, attracting around 90% of predictions on both betting platforms.
[ad_2]
Source link
